(Thoughts while dusting off evote’s mystical crystal ball)

One down, how many to go?

Libby’s done, forced into retirement and up on five counts related to perjury and obstruction and justice. He’s facing some serious jail time should he be convicted, along with a hefty fine.

Libby’s going to use the “who can remember all that stuff from years ago?” defense, and Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald can expect a number of attempted character assassinations that will likely peter out as they backfire.

Yes, the Republican machine is going to fling as much mud as it can, but none is going to stick this time.

Cheney’s office is in disarray right now – in addition to losing his number 1. aide, the Vice President can be expected to testify in the case, along with all sorts of people you’ve heard of, and plenty you haven’t. The biggest problem facing Tricky Dick and friends is they’ve already testified once (or more), and there’s a good bit of evidence they weren’t telling the truth the first time around – just not an indictable amount.

The question for these poor smooshed souls: do they stick with their original testimony and possibly deepen any perjury or cover-up they initially participated in? Do they use the “Oh yeah… now I remember…” line? Or do they come clean and hope for – or deal for – mercy?

Take Karl Rove, a man who was about to be indicted alongside Libby. He made a call to Fitzgerald the night before decisions were handed down, and gave over a piece of evidence that gave the prosecutor “pause.” Rove has a new grand jury continuing to investigate him, and odds remain high he’ll be indicted on charges similar to Libby’s in the next few weeks.

But what piece of information did Rove hand over to get this temporary reprieve? We already know he was willing to throw Libby under the bus – when Rove stopped denying he had knowledge about Valerie Plame before the Novak article, he fingered Libby as his source.

Maybe Rove had more to say about Libby, finish the aide off so he could survive?

Possible, but somewhat unlikely – Libby has been indicted: if there were other charges he might face, that action would have been delayed.

Let’s think about this: you’re in a TV detective show, they’ve got you in a room, you’re about to go to prison for life – what do you do? Right: you plea bargain and send the responsibility up the line.

Rove probably either claimed he’d been manipulated into his present position (is that possible for the architect?), or he offered to testify against a different target in exchange for lenience. If he had a real piece of evidence clearing himself, it’s doubtful he would have held it back until now, unless it shifted the blame somewhere he didn’t want it to go.

This man has an amazing survival instinct, and he’s already turned on a fellow White House official to loosen his own noose. What makes us think he won’t do it again?

Considering the uncomfortable position a number of senior aides are being put in – if they do have anything to hide, they must be sweating bullets – we shouldn’t be surprised if they start turning on each other. Cohesion is likely to fall apart as everyone falls all over themselves to be the first to save their – what, not careers (which will disappear once they’re convincingly connected to the web), but perhaps save themselves from extended disgrace.

While administration players holds their breath and tries to decide when to shift strategy – or even if they will – in the meantime, there’s a country to run. And the Republicans are in major trouble.

Already, their popularity was dropping, with numerous polls showing Americans would favor a Democrat-controlled Congress to work with Bush from 2006. Given the scandals at the top of the Senate leadership, the House leadership, and in the White House itself, Republicans are automatically on the defensive.

Add in cronyism and Katrina, Harriet Miers failure and the 2000th soldier killed – not to mention deficits previously unthinkable and a government debt that is unsustainable, coming heating costs and interrupted oil – the GOP is probably in full panic mode.

If the Democrats know what’s good for them (and they haven’t shown us they do yet), they’ll start hammering hard. If the Republicans are kept back on their heels from now to 2006, the Senate will almost certainly switch leadership, and the House just might too.

The pendulum of public opinion is swinging back the other way, and front-line Republicans are getting hit in the face. Expect them to start trying lots of things – anything – to get out of the way of building citizen anger. Expect some to convince a few people, and hardliners to make excuses for their leaders.

Expect most Americans to be fed up, and simply not buy a thing out of mouths they believe haven’t been honest. Bush himself might not get explicitly caught up in any of this, but he’s going to be guilty by association and enter lame duckdom mighty fast.

Some Congressmen might discreetly ask him not to campaign for them – just like Gore did with Clinton.

This ship is going down, the famed loyalty Bush loves of his soldiers is going to suffer more mutinies, and the Democrats ought to be able to exploit it.

And if they can’t, get ready for record absenteeism at the polls for the next few years. The public’s trust is shattered, and while the GOP will try to focus all the negativity on Libby once they realize his is a lost cause, it’s doubtful they’ll succeed.

If no one can sustain an honesty platform, no one’s going to get much support. Republicans are going to be regarded suspicious, while Democrats have their lockout from power the past five years to give them a bit more leeway.

Still, plenty of folks simply won’t trust any politicians. As Plamegate and other disasters deepen for the administration, we’ll be seeing one very cynical public. Even a successfully dealt with attack or disaster might not bring them back.

The Republican world is crumbling, and it might take all politics with it. Get ready for one crazy ride.