What a mess. The season is turning into Bush’s Summer of Scandals, and the air of Washington is that of a held breath, everyone waiting to see what comes next. Remarkably, the issue many in politics feel to be the most damaging – PR aside – is the one receiving relatively little direct press. However, it is the issue that all others seem to link up with behind the scenes.

Treasongate, or Wilsongate – or Whatevergate floats your boat – has been brewing a long time, and it is now threatening to boil over. To sum up the history, ex-diplomat Joe Wilson was sent by Cheney’s office to investigate the claim that Iraq tried to purchase “Yellowcake” from Niger for nuclear weapons. Wilson came back saying the claims were bunk, but almost a year later they appeared in Bush’s State of the Union address as one of the impetuses for war.

After a few months on the talk show circuit as a pundit Wilson wrote a New York Times editorial detailing his mission and his (non)findings, concluding that the Bush administration was either grossly incompetent or actively lying. Soon after, conservative columnist Bob Novak wrote an article citing two unnamed sources who said Wilson’s wife, Valerie Plame, was a CIA operative and implied that the ex-diplomat’s trip to Niger was a boondoggle.

Perhaps the intent was to weaken Wilson’s credentials as a snooper, perhaps the leak was meant to threaten and intimidate anyone who thought of blowing whistles in the future, perhaps something else – we’ll likely never know. What we do know is it was an unwise move.

First, from a purely realpolitik point-of-view, leaking Plame’s name was incredibly damaging to intelligence used in the war on terror. It has been widely reported that Plame was a member of Brewster, Jennings & Associates – which journalist Wayne Madsen’s many sources have told him is a CIA proprietary company. What that means is the business – while behaving and acting in the economic world as any other would – is really nothing more than a large cover operation, designed to allow the CIA access to secrets of the trade and other corporations. Brewster, Jennings & Associates happens to be deeply involved with – and partial owners of – both Mobil and ARAMCO, or the Arab American Oil Company.

It takes a long time for proprietary companies to get a firm enough footing to be of any use, and Plame’s was a fully mature one operating in the mid-east energy sector – most specifically, working deeply with Saudi Arabia’s oil. As soon as she was outed, however, her entire company’s cover was useless – not to mention all the agents involved with the operation were put at risk.

Another huge problem is this leak basically opened up a third front for the Bush administration. The first two are Afghanistan and Iraq, while the third, according to Thomas Powers and his new book “Intelligence Wars: American Secret History From Hitler to Al Queda”, is against the CIA itself.

The shifting of intelligence to the Pentagon rubbed many in the U.S. intelligence agencies the wrong way, but it appears the outing of an operative was the last straw. Ever since then the battle between the civilian military brass and the CIA has been in high gear – the latest evidence being Ahmed Challabi’s outing as an Iranian spy. It was a CIA operation that raided Challabi’s Pentagon-sponsored office. Challabi – the neocon’s choice as the new Iraqi leader – has been ousted in favor of Iyad Allawi, a man more closely connected to the CIA.

Lastly and potentially most damaging of all, the leak is headed to the courts. The CIA – through George Tenet – asked the FBI to investigate the crime (for the leaking of an operative is a very serious crime indeed). Progress was slow until Attorney-General John Ashcroft was forced to recuse himself from the investigation in December. Since then Patrick Fitzgerald, the U.S. Attorney in Chicago, has headed the case. The rumors are Fitzgerald has placed at least one of the leaks in Cheney’s office (with whispers pointing to “Scooter” Libby, Cheney’s Chief-of-Staff), and it appears indictments are on the way – likely before the election.

Both Bush and Cheney have consulted with private defense lawyers on the intricacies of this case – something former White House counsel and legal expert John Dean calls “a rather stunning and extraordinary development.” The reason this is so significant is both men went outside the scores of government lawyers at their disposal.

Why? Well, in the ‘90s Ken Starr did a wonderful job of destroying attorney-client privilege when politicians speak to their government lawyers. Basically, if a politician wants to talk about something sensitive they now need private attorneys. The implication is not only that Bush and Cheney expect to be questioned (Cheney already has had an interview), but also that they know more than they’ve said to this point. If it were otherwise there is no need to look for outside help; if, however, the President knew of or participated in a cover-up for instance, he would need to talk about that with a private lawyer so as to keep his words secret.

There are also those who believe that the resignation of CIA Director George Tenet and his Deputy Director, James Pavitt, are related to this. The reason is quite simple: under Executive Privilege, an acting member of the Executive Branch can be kept from giving damning testimony regarding their superiors. The same is not true for former members of the Executive Branch. Could it be that Tenet knows the trial is coming, and has chosen to side with the CIA instead of the White House? We shall soon see. It is worth noting that Tenet’s resignation left Bush unprepared and slightly shell-shocked – it certainly appears that Tenet wasn’t pushed out, but chose his own schedule. He isn’t acting like a man taking the fall, but one who has an ace up his sleeve.

Public trials will begin soon, and as those following these events like to point out at every opportunity, the initial crimes about to be prosecuted are graver – and the initial targets higher up the chain – than was the case at this point in the Watergate timeline. If Wilsongate is in court before the election and the dirty political games of administration insiders are exposed – whether or not they can be directly linked to Bush or Cheney – and especially if indictments appear to be leading to convictions of household names, the President-elect may be apparent well before November.