Every nomination season, there’s got to be one. One nominee who sticks in the craw of the opposition – or at least is radical enough to make a good anvil upon which to hammer. Of course you have to be careful; given enough time, it is the hammer which breaks. The Democrats are hoping this fight proves they still are relevant – without leading to further marginalization.

This year the controversial nominee is John Bolton, who is seeking appointment as Ambassador to the U.N. Democrats are up in arms over him, and while you could be excused for thinking this a political game of show-some-strength (which it is), you would also be missing the very legitimate concerns of the Senate.

Richard Lugar of Indiana, the Republican Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, told President Bush not to nominate Bolton because he doubted the hardliner would make it through the committee’s vetting process – not to mention Lugar is a strong proponent of the U.N., which Bolton has bashed for years now. Bush dismissed the request and pressed ahead with Cheney’s protégé. Lugar, the good soldier, has vowed to stand behind the President’s man, saying although he would have chosen someone different, the ambassador represents the White House and you need a very legitimate reason to oppose the White House’s choice.

At the start of the Committee’s hearing on Bolton all eight Democrats opposed him, and of the ten Republicans, one (Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island) expressed enough doubt that the decision would have to be more than the simple rubber stamp most nominees receive. Chafee’s reluctance to throw his full weight behind Bolton is understandable, given that the Senator is also a big believer in the U.N.

For perspective, Bolton has repeatedly said that the United Nations is only useful when it serves the purposes of the United States (he’s softened that in hearings to mean the U.N. needs U.S. leadership), remarking you could knock ten of the 38 floors off the U.N. and it wouldn’t make a difference (now phrased as a reference to bureaucratic inefficiency in all its forms), and even declaring the U.N. does not exist (since explained as meaning the U.N. is an idea, and its strength ebbs and flows with the strength and cooperation of the participating countries).

Double-speak aside, it is obvious that Bolton is no fan of the U.N. as it currently works, and the Bush administration wants him in there to change things. According to the White House (often speaking through Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice), they want Bolton to help clean up the inefficiency and corruption of the institution; according to Democrats, he is there to destroy U.N. multilateralism so U.S. unilateralism has an easier time flitting about the world. That debate, however, is one of policy and can’t really be used to attack Bolton the nominee (save it for the mid-terms). So opponents have looked elsewhere for their ammunition.

Lucky for them, plenty of dirt abounds. Pursuing the angle that Bolton doesn’t have the diplomatic temperament to work with allies and, even more, enemies, Democrats have been examining the nominee’s relationships inside the State Department. Bolton asked for the dismissal or reassignment of two (maybe more) intelligence analysts during his time at the Department. He says he lost confidence in the analysts when they went behind his back, while the intelligence community claims he didn’t like the information he got, and became infuriated when more virulent (pun coming) intelligence couldn’t be backed up. In one specific instance, Bolton wanted to talk about a fledgling biological weapons program in Cuba, but the State’s analyst, Christian Westermann, wouldn’t give him the go-ahead. In recalling the incident for the committee Carl Ford Jr., then-Director of Intelligence and Research (INR) at the State Department, said he had never seen worse bullying of an underling. He added that former-Secretary of State Colin Powell had to intervene, encouraging INR analysts to continue to “speak truth to power.” Ford ended by calling Bolton a “kiss-up, kick-down sort of guy.” Given that Ford is a staunch conservative and supporter of the Bush White House and its policies, his denigration of Bolton was particularly damaging.

In addition to a few more run-ins with intelligence analysts that work with the State Department and the CIA, Bolton also has had confrontations with people before he worked with the Bush administration. When with the Justice Department in 1988 he got in a huge row with a junior lawyer over the length of her maternity leave. And in 1994, working for a private law firm, he is accused of harassing one of the employees of his client. Melody Tounsel, working for the Agency for International Development, claims that he chased her down the hallways of a Russian hotel, throwing things at her and yelling threats, repeatedly screaming and banging on the door of the hotel room where she had retreated. While that hasn’t yet been confirmed (but might be any time now), others who worked with her said that when Bolton entered, he terrorized the office.

There have been questionable intelligence requests by Bolton, where he asked for the names of administration officials quoted in surveillance summaries. Whether all the proper channels were followed in obtaining that information is another matter which is up for debate. Letters have abounded, with 59 ex-diplomats sending one denouncing Bolton, five former Secretaries of State sending a note of support, and Colin Powell expressing reservations in phone conversations with at least two Republican Committee members.

The accusations have been convincing enough that now four of the ten Republicans on the Foreign Relations Committee have said they don’t know how they’ll vote. First to join Chafee was Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska. Still, despite their doubts it appeared the Committee was about to approve Bolton’s nomination to go to the Senate floor after an earlier delay in the ballot. Mr. Lugar was about to call a vote when Senator George Voinovich of Ohio pulled a surprise defection and asked for another extension for further reflection. “My conscience got me” he said afterwards. Since then Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska has said through a spokesperson that she is glad the vote was delayed again. She let it be known that she wanted more time to make up her mind, a reversal on her previous support of Bolton.

No doubt Democrats – led by Senators Joseph Biden and Christopher Dodd of Delaware and Connecticut – are happy to be flexing some muscle. But this isn’t really a surprise – everyone expected the junior party to fight hard in an effort to get some power back after a close election year which saw them lose seats in both Houses. The real story is the cracks in the Republican front.

Moderate Republicans now have the most clout in Congress, able to push through administration policies and people when they choose, but also able to defect and defeat them when things get too right-wing.

The White House is attempting to close ranks. Vice President Cheney is making statements remarking Bolton’s heavy-handed tactics would fit right in with those of many elected officials. Bush is accusing Democrats of holding up the process over politics, and urging Republicans to push Bolton through. Rice has issued a gag order on further comments from State Department officials, and Mr. Chafee mused the screws are being put to Voinovich, with Mr. Hagel and himself next in line for a lecture.

Despite this, the rift in the Republican Party is becoming larger. Perhaps because Bush won’t be around to politic for 2/3 of the Senate when their elections roll around, perhaps because the GOP is in a secure position and individuals can afford to be more outspoken in their beliefs (and those of their constituents) – perhaps simply in an attempt to up their chips in the big game – moderates are becoming more outspoken. The Message Machine has chinks.

This is an unpredictable time on the hill, with a President that has entered his lame-duck countdown, and moves to drastically change Senate rules raising eyebrows on all sides of the aisle (see evote’s coverage here). Over the next month of so the dust will settle and the balance will find its equilibrium, but whether that is where the President wants it is up for grabs. Administrations entering second terms often lose support, and the current one has shown it doesn’t like compromise. Whether Bush has the pull to keep all Republicans under his umbrella is a major question, one which will determine his effectiveness over the next four years. The vote on Bolton – due May 12th – is the first test.